How it works

Data first

Every page starts with facts: lines from the sportsbooks, the official injury report, confirmed lineups, beat-writer and insider news, team and player numbers. Nothing on the default pages is our opinion.

Where it comes from

• Official NBA injury report Every report the league publishes on game days.
• Official NBA lineups Expected and confirmed starters and the inactive list.
• Beat writers and insiders Posts on X and Bluesky from national insiders and every team's beat reporters.
• ESPN and RotoWire Injury notes, transactions, scores, schedules and national TV.
• Sportsbooks Spreads, totals, moneylines and player props from major books.
• Team podcasts We listen to every Locked On team show to track the hosts' calls (shown on the analyst page).

Predictions are opt-in

Switch Predictions on in the top bar to add our projected scores, projected minutes, prop projections and where our model disagrees with the market. Switch it off and they disappear.

Splits and hit rates

A split compares a player's games in one situation (a teammate out, the second night of a back-to-back, a certain opponent) with all his other games. We label each one by how much to read into it: "could be noise", "notable" or "strong". Hit rate is how often he went over tonight's line.

News speed

On game days we check every source every few minutes and the pages refresh on their own. Each item shows when it was posted.

Our track record

Behind the site runs a private lab that tests our models with simulated bets at real sportsbook prices, on games that had not happened yet. Nothing here is real money. A model output is labelled Experimental until its market has at least 250 settled bets with positive closing-line value and positive return after the sportsbook's cut, and it loses the Proven label automatically if that stops holding. Winning 50% is not enough: at −110 prices it takes about 52.4% to break even.

What it is not

Nothing here is betting advice, and we never take bets.