How the analyst tracker scores

Fair to the people being rated, and useful to you: who is actually ahead of the news?

What counts as a call

A statement about something that has not happened yet and can be checked: a player is out, starts, plays big minutes; a team wins a game or a number of games; a player misses a stretch of games. Opinions and analysis are listed as opinions and never scored. Quotes from coaches and players are not analyst calls.

How we write it down

We turn each call into a plain statement with a subject, a deadline and a published rule, in our own words. A call that needs a number the speaker never gave is not scored unless one of our published rules fits it.

Hedged calls

"I think" and "probably" count. "Could", "might" and "wouldn't be shocked" are listed as floated and never scored either way. Each voice shows a commitment rate: how many of their calls were firm and checkable.

Expected chance

Every settled call gets the chance it had of happening based only on what was public when it was said: the official injury report, the betting line, or the player's recent games. Saying a player who is already listed Out will sit earns almost nothing; calling a surprise earns a lot.

Score

For each call, credit = result (1 or 0) minus the expected chance. Calls about the same game and player count as one. The average credit is pulled toward zero when there are few calls, and comes with a likely range.

Grades

A +8 or more · B +3 to +8 · C −3 to +3 · D −8 to −3 · F below −8 (points above what was expected). A voice is graded once they have 25 independent settled calls across at least 2 kinds, and at least 25% of their calls were firm. When the likely range crosses a grade line we show both.

Kept apart

Predictions and news reports are rated separately. Reports only count when they were first: repeating news that was already public is shown but not scored. Preseason games are shown but not scored.

Who said it

We credit a person only when we are sure: their own account, or a podcast speaker identified by name. When we cannot tell which host spoke, the call goes to the show and never to a person.

Corrections

Results are never edited in place; a correction is a new version with a reason. Anyone can flag a call through the feedback link; while it is under review it stays out of the score.