Hoop DossierInside the Lab
Behind the site we run a lab that answers one question honestly: can any of our numbers beat the sportsbooks? We don't know yet. This page is where you'll find out when we do, either way.
The live record
| Market | Settled bets | Game days | Won | Closing-line value | Return | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game lines (spread, total, moneyline) | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | Experimental |
| Player props (over/under) | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | Experimental |
| Milestones and specials | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | Experimental |
Simulated bets at real prices; no real money. Updated with every publish. Wins and losses alike.
How it works
- About 90 minutes before each tip, the Lab prices every market it can (game lines and player props) and records all of them, not just the ones it bets: it learns from every price, so it is not fooled by only looking at its favourites. It re-checks after lineups and after any injury news, and records those too.
- It places a simulated bet only where its edge clears the bar for that kind of bet. No real money is ever bet.
- After the game, each bet is graded and compared with the price just before tip-off (the closing line). Game bets are also compared with the closing price at Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook. For player props we only have DraftKings' own closing line, a weaker check that we keep in mind.
- 50% is not break-even. At the usual −110 price you need 52.4% to break even; winning half your bets loses about 4.5% of everything staked.
- Closing-line value is the early proof. Results are noisy for months; beating the closing price consistently shows real skill much sooner.
What to expect early on
Our model has to earn trust before it bets. Each kind of bet starts close to the market and moves toward our model only as the record shows it deserves to, updated every night by a fixed rule. So in the first weeks the Lab will place few or no bets and the record above may read 0 for a while. That is the system being honest, not idle: every priced market is still recorded and graded, and that is what the trust is learned from.
How ideas get tested
Many ideas (strategies) compete at once on fresh games they have never seen. Most lose. The rule for calling a winner was fixed before the first bet: a statistical correction for testing many ideas at once stops a lucky streak from passing as skill, and every idea ever tried counts against the bar, so adding ideas cannot manufacture a winner.
Once a week an AI analyst reviews the record, writes down new ideas, launches at most two new experiments and pauses dead ends (a paused idea keeps its record and can come back). It waits for 20 game days of results before its first review, and a person reads everything it does.
The honesty rules
- Forward only: every bet is recorded before the game, and frozen.
- Every result is kept, especially the bad ones.
- A model is promoted from Experimental to Proven only by a rule fixed in advance: at least 250 settled bets over 60 game days, closing prices measured for at least 90% of them, beating the closing line with room to spare, and a profit. The same rule demotes.
- Promotion is switched off until that rule has itself been tested against random results.
What we will never show, and why
- Individual bets. Publishing them would make us a tipster; the aggregate record is what matters.
- Strategy rules. They are the research itself, and they change as ideas win and lose.
- Podcast audio or transcripts. Not ours to publish; we show short credited summaries.
- Anything about you. No accounts, no tracking of who reads what.
Nothing here is betting advice. If you bet, bet responsibly: 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.